They have a 3% drop chance (

https://classicdb.ch/?item=18563)

You could make a spreadsheet using probability to give you an idea of how many trials it may take - but regardless you have a 3/100 chance per run of getting it. The trials are independent, however if repeated enough times it will eventually converge.

Basically, you have to keep trying - or donate - your choice.

Using the following formula, you can determine the probability of the bindings dropped based on Baron Kills.

If a single kill has a 3% chance, the probability of it not occurring is 97% per trial.

Therefore, you can model the probability as follows:

P(Bindings Dropping) = 1 - [P(Not Dropping) ^ n], 'n' being the total number of trials.

P(Bindings Dropping) = 1 - [(0.97) ^ n],

So, lets use n=1, n=10, n=25, n=50, n=100, n=200

(n=1) : 1 - (0.97^1) = 0.03 = 3.00%

(n=10) : 1 - (0.97^10) = 0.2625 = 26.25%

(n=25) : 1 - (0.97^25) = 0.5330 = 53.30%

(n=50) : 1 - (0.97^50) = 0.7819 = 78.19%

(n=100) : 1 - (0.97^100) = 0.9524 = 95.24%

(n=200) : 1 - (0.97^200) = 0.9977 = 99.77%

Hope this helps, cheers.

Feltyham

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